AAPL iPhone 7

September 7, 2016

Sometimes finding patterns in the noise can be fun. Similar to Buy the Rumor from a while ago, here’s how AAPL moved during Apple’s iPhone 7 announcement, annotated.

The below chart highlights the deviations of AAPL from the S&P 500, and a moving average of that deviation. This helps cut out some noise from the broader market, somewhat isolating AAPL’s movements. Of course it’s not a complete isolation of movement, as there are countless correlation and stat-arb systems playing every tick. Charts like these are more useful on higher time frames.

AAPL stock chart
Click the image for full size
  1. Amazon — Amazon published iPhone 7 accessories and images of the iPhone 7 on their store before Apple’s presentation began, snatching the announcement scoop from Apple, not that anyone was surprised Apple was launching another iPhone at an event taking place during the same time of year they normally announce iPhones.
  2. A.M. Subs — Seventeen million subscribers means, doing some quick but inaccurate math, around $170MM monthly recurring revenue, a four-percent increase in current annual revenue.
  3. A.S. Y/Y — The App Store is still experiencing year-over-year growth. Apple receives thirty percent of all sales, though many applications are free, monetized through third-party advertising networks that Apple doesn’t receive revenue from.
  4. iOS Mario — Nintendo made a Mario-themed running game, whose paid revenue, if any, Apple will receive thirty percent of.
  5. ConnectED — Apple discussed its work under the United States government’s ConnectED program to bring modern technology to K–12 classrooms, namely iPads.
  6. iWork — Added collaborative features à la Google Docs and Office 365, allowing multiple people to edit the same documents together or apart.
  7. Watch — An update on, and to, the Apple Watch, including a faster processor.
  8. A.W. Poké — I guess people really like this Pokémon Go game, huh. It now has a companion app on Apple Watch so you don’t need to keep your iPhone’s screen on while walking around. More engagement means more in-app purchases.
  9. Watch 2 — A second Apple Watch, even more water resistant.
  10. A.W. Prices — Prices for the new Apple Watch and the upgraded older one. As typical for new releases, the older device, though upgraded, becomes cheaper.
  11. iPhone Sales — An update on numbers.
  12. iOS 10 — Announcing.
  13. iPhone 7 — Announcing.
  14. iPhone 7 Plus — Announcing.
  15. Wireless Earbuds — Announcing.
  16. Apple Pay — An update on, including the introduction of FeliCa chips for Japan, though my understanding is that FeliCa is used elsewhere in the world as well…
  17. iPhone Prices — New prices, same as the old, with the previous generation of iPhones seeing price reductions as usual.
  18. Music Show — A strange woman took the stage to bid us farewell through song and dance.

Three more visualizations, this time of the entire trading day, with the event start and end likewise denoted. Once institutional traders got their legal sign-off, things definitely got going, about six billion things across one percent of the float.

AAPL stock chart AAPL stock chart AAPL stock chart

Since AAPL is more than ten percent of the Nasdaq 100 by weight, this event also helped AAPL push the Nasdaq 100 to new all-time closing highs, the first new all-time closing high since the top of the tech bubble in March 2000. It’s a bit bullshit, though, just a nominal new all-time high. Adjusting for inflation, the Nasdaq has another 29.5% to go for true parity. The tech bubble was insane.